How big a splash will Barbenheimer make at the Oscars?
Barbie and Oppenheimer aren't just box office rivals—these summer blockbusters figure to extend their competition throughout awards season
Film Features Barbenheimer
The unlikely rivalry between Barbie and Oppenheimer isn’t just the most exciting thing to happen at the movies in years. It’s a full-blown cultural event that figures to continue well beyond summer with a deep run into Hollywood’s awards season. Of course, if the Academy Awards were easy to predict, it wouldn’t be any fun trying to guess the winners. But sometimes clear contenders emerge early on, and this year we’re pretty comfortable forecasting (or at least hoping for) an Oscar race full of Barbie and Oppenheimer match-ups.
While Greta Gerwig’s Barbie may be handily winning at the box office (it’s the first film directed by a solo woman to reach $1 billion in ticket sales), Oppenheimer continues to exceed expectations; Christopher Nolan’s film just extended its run in the 70mm Imax format, the toughest ticket at theaters right now. Both films are likely to remain at the cineplex, and in the public consciousness, for some time to come. That won’t hurt when it’s time to start handing out nominations. Here’s a look at all the races where Barbie and Oppenheimer are likely to face off.
Above the line
Best Picture: A nomination in this category for both Barbie and Oppenheimer is among the safest predictions we can make at this point. If the Academy can’t find room for these films among the 10 nominees in the best picture race, there’s something wrong with the system. The once bright line between commercially successful movies and more prestigious fare (think E.T. versus Gandhi back in 1983) is getting dimmer, with populist crowd-pleasers like Top Gun: Maverick and Avatar: The Way Of Water landing best picture nods alongside art house titles these days. So this one’s pretty much a given.
Best Director: Expect to see both Greta Gerwig and Christopher Nolan competing directly against each other in this race. It wouldn’t be the first time. In 2018, Gerwig was nominated for Lady Bird, while Nolan was there for Dunkirk; both films were also nominated for Best Picture. It was the first Best Director nomination for both of them; neither has won an Oscar.
Best Adapted Screenplay: Gerwig and Nolan have also been nominated previously for their writing. Nolan was nominated in 2002 for Memento and in 2011 for Inception; both were original screenplays. Gerwig was nominated for her original screenplay for Lady Bird and for her adaptation of Little Women. Oppenheimer is based on the biography American Prometheus: The Triumph and Tragedy of J. Robert Oppenheimer by Kai Bird and Martin J. Sherwin, so it qualifies for the adapted screenplay category. Although Barbie features an original story, it’s based on the Mattel toy line, and would also be considered an adaptation, according to the Academy’s rules. Gerwig would be sharing the nomination this time with her co-writer, Noah Baumbach (who has been nominated for best original screenplay twice before himself—for The Squid And The Whale and Marriage Story).
Acting categories
Best Actor/Best Actress: The lead performances in these films are rich and deep. Margot Robbie stands alone as the only best actress candidate of the two films, but we can see Ryan Gosling (Barbie’s Ken) and Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer’s Oppenheimer) both scoring nominations for best actor.
Best Supporting Actor/Best Supporting Actress: It gets a bit more crowded when it comes to the supporting cast. For Barbie, both America Ferrera’s and Rhea Perlman’s performances are worthy of a nod. Then there’s Emily Blunt and Florence Pugh, who played very different but equally compelling roles in Oppenheimer. When it comes to the men, Robert Downey Jr. and Matt Damon are solid bets from Oppenheimer. We’re less bullish about Barbie’s supporting actors, but perhaps Simu Liu’s singing, dancing, “beach off”-threatening could be Ken-ough for a nomination.
Technical and creative categories
Best Cinematography: Hoyte van Hoytema’s Oppenheimer work is gorgeous and award-worthy. But so is Rodrigo Prieto’s for Barbie, in a completely different (almost opposite) way. Each of these cinematographers helped create the distinctive look of their respective films and should be recognized for their contributions.
Best Production Design: Sarah Greenwood created an entire world for Barbie, and juxtaposed it with the heightened reality of the real-world scenes. Meanwhile, Ruth De Jong recreated the Los Alamos site, plus various period-appropriate classrooms and homes, for Oppenheimer. Both were monumental tasks.
Best Costume Design/Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Jacqueline Durran’s fabulous costumes ensured Barbie delivered on its early promise, while Ellen Mirojnick’s vintage 1940s styles provided a sharp focus for Oppenheimer. And the makeup and hairstyles designed by Ivana Primorac (Barbie) and Luisa Abel (Oppenheimer) elevated both films.
Best Editing/Best Sound Mixing/Best Sound Editing/Best Original Score/Best Original Song: Both Barbie and Oppenheimer figure to be in the race for Best Editing (Nick Houy and Jennifer Lame, respectively). Oppenheimer’s sound designer, Richard King, has a clear edge when it comes to Best Sound. The music for Oppenheimer could also easily earn Ludwig Göransson his second nomination for Best Original Score (he won in 2019 for Black Panther). Barbie’s likely to be in the running for best original song for the power ballad “I’m Just Ken,” written and produced by Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt.
Best Visual Effects: There were plenty of loud, effects-heavy films this year that may get more attention, and this arena is where genre films like Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 and big-budget productions like The Little Mermaid tend to shine. But sometimes the best visual effects are the ones that aren’t so obvious, so there’s a chance the Academy could find room for Barbie and Oppenheimer in this category as well.
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“These days” there’s still less overlap between the BP nominees and the most commercially successful films than there was for most of the Oscars’ history.Most speculation I’ve read has been about Gosling facing Downey for Supporting Actor.
Pugh & Blunt aren’t getting nominated. I’m a fan of Nolan’s movies, but he’s never directed a nomination-worthy female role, and these aren’t his best.
Yeah, this is clearly Gosling vs. Downey for Supporting Actor. Gosling has zero shot in Lead Actor.
Pugh is also probably in the movie for five minutes total.
Agreed. Pugh existed to have boobs and kill herself at the prospect of a life without Oppendick, and Blunt was stuck playing Generic Bad Wife (Drunk Variant) for the whole movie, with the exception of that one scene where she just fillets the prosecutor.
She felt like a completely different character in that scene. I’m sure some of it is the writing but she didn’t do the best job of bridging that gap and making the character feel like a real person.
I blame the writing for only giving her the one scene where she was a real person.
I’d have much preferred an entire movie with calculating, knows what game she’s in and knows how to play it, hiding behind a proper wife facade to lure dumbass men into letting their guard down Kitty.
Her best and most real scene is when she goes off on him for playing a martyr. I feel like there was a better way to thread the needle between these different character facets so these scenes don’t come out of nowhere but I agree that she has basically no room to do so; the writing just isn’t there.
Robert has a great day every day. Jean only has a great day if Robert looks at her.
One of Oppenheimer’s biggest failings is its portrayal of women, and both Blunt and Pugh feel terribly underutilized (though I think Blunt will squeak in with a token Supporting Actress nod).A big missed opportunity, was to feature the role of Priscilla Duffield, who was Oppenheimer’s right hand at Los Alamos, and practically his shadow, taking notes, organizing, putting his decisions into action. I found myself imagining an alternate movie about this pair, and Florence Pugh playing her. I would’ve been better. The Jean Tatlock storyline, while tragic, didn’t add much to the story.
I thought there was inordinate focus on the revocation of his security clearance (and later Lewis Strauss’ nomination), and they wanted to highlight Jean because of her coming up in that. Although since they kept in Oppenheimer attributing the name “Trinity” to John Donne’s poetry (while naming it, rather than in hindsight), it was kind of a missed opportunity to connect said poetry to her.
Obviously Ken should get best supporting actor because is literally what Ken is!
How hilarious would it be if the only acting performance from Barbie to win an Oscar was the guy (Gosling)?Hoping Gerwig gets a win in there somewhere; she’s been making really good movies for the last few years.
Really hoping between Little Women and Lady Bird and now Barbie, the Academy deems it time for Greta
I hate say it, but… Nolan’s been pumping out bangers for over two decades. If it’s not his time now, for a prestigious WWII-era biopic, then when?
Maybe his prestigious WWIII biopic will win
LLady bird was great but her little woman wasn’t. It wasn’t bad however I didn’t feel like her take was interesting enough. I think the 90’s version was stronger overall. Bale > Chalamet as laurie.
That is 100% what will happen. And no one in the Academy will get the irony.
That honestly wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. Far from how Ben Shapiro interpreted the movie, it is quite nuanced when it comes to the plight of the oppressed Kens who are forced to live in an apartheid state without purpose or opportunity, and Gosling gave a thoroughly committed performance. I don’t think the Academy would be missing the point if Gosling wins and none of the actresses do.
The awards ceremony will include a live performance of “I’m Just Ken” , and then later there will be a montage of clips from infamously bad movies rolled out as a salute to the bombs of yesteryear.
If the ceremony doesn’t have a live performance of “I’m Just Ken,” the Academy deserves every piece of criticism it’s had lately for not knowing how to attract an audience. Hell, while watching Barbie on opening day, my companion leaned over to me and whispered, “They need to do THIS at the Oscars!”
“I’m Just Ken” made me low-key wish the entire Barbie movie was a musical, I feel Margot while not a trained singer, could swing it.
and jack black better do ‘peaches’
For Barbie, both America Ferrera’s and Rhea Perlman’s performances are worthy of a nod.I adore Rhea Perlman but is this true? America carries a LOT of the back half of that movie, whereas Rhea Perlman just kinda shows up in a couple moments to tell Barbie what she needs to hear.
No, you’re right. Perlman will be a huge shock if she’s nominated. She appears twice in the movie, and her first appearance is one of the weakest parts of the film. Her acting is fine, but the scene itself is poorly integrated into the rest of the narrative, and I think that matters. Plus, she really didn’t have much to do. No nomination there.
it would also presumably ‘take’ a nom from someone doing more interesting work in a more interesting movie. no shade to barbie, but that would be a bit of a waste.
I think Damon has pretty good odds on a nomination, obviously we’re a long way out and many other films have to be released, but he’s an academy favorite. If we’re betting though, the choice is easily Downey. I think he’ll win. Murphy too. The academy loves the “conflicted genius” performance. I also think as good as Barbie is, that Nolan is going to win best director for this. Gerwig will take screenplay. The technical awards will go to Oppy for the Trinity test alone. Just an incredible scene to see in a theater.
Who knows? Knowing the Acedmy, I can see Barbie being ignored and Oppenheimer just winning a technical Oscar or two.
Oppenheimer: Murphy will 100% get a nod but has 0% chance to win. Emily Blunt will finally get a nod for a fine performance that is nonetheless much less interesting than other stuff she’s been in, as Oscar is wont to do (see: Patricia Clarkson in 2003, Maggie Gyllenhaal in 2009). Downey Jr. is clearly the frontrunner for the win right now, and I don’t see anyone else overtaking him.
Barbie: The movie, while very good, still doesn’t strike me as Serious Enough for major noms, although Best Pic isn’t out of the question in a 10-wide field. On acting, I think just Gosling has a decent chance for a *supporting actor* nod (he is 100% committed to the bit and nearly steals the movie among a very stacked cast, a tall order). Robbie and Ferrera were good, but I have to imagine more traditional performances will come along to bump them out.
Mostly agreed. Like I wouldn’t be surprised to see Barbie snag noms in the major categories, but I also wouldn’t be surprised to see it relegated to mostly just the technical stuff.I would expect a screenplay award to be the one award Barbie gets. It’s always the prestigious award that the Academy is willing to give a movie that is outside of its comfort zone in the other major prestige categories. (See also: Get Out, Promising Young Woman, Her, Juno.)
Really? Unless I’m blanking on potential competition, I think Cillian Murphy has got to be the current frontrunner for best actor. Downey might have a slightly best chance of taking home best supporting actor, but I don’t currently see a ton of serious competition in the lead actor category. Maybe Killers of the Flower Moon comes along and shakes things up, I don’t know, but DiCaprio already has won, so I feel like it might well be Murphy’s year.
I 100% agree!
Yeah I think Murphy is the one to beat. Yes he’s playing the titular character in a biopic, but he dominates that movie to the point that even when he’s not on screen, you sense his presence.
I completely disagree about Cillian Murphy. He has a very real shot to win the Oscar for Best Actor this year. The only titan he faces is a possible Leo nomination for Killers of the Flower Moon. Gosling has a decent shot at best supporting actor but I wouldn’t be surprised if he Robert Downey Jr. takes it.
I just feel like it’s too inward/introspective of a performance, and those rarely win. Would be happy to be wrong. But you’re right — it’s sparse competition this year with the strike looming. At the moment my money’s on Bradley Cooper for Maestro (the Leonard Bernstein movie).
My most controversial take on Barbie (a movie I otherwise adore) is that Robbie was wrong for the lead. Or rather, I just never believed she was Barbie. I always felt like I was watching Margot Robbie AS Barbie. She didn’t disappear into the role. I really think Barbie needed to be played by an unknown, about whom we had no previous history, so we as viewers could really imprint upon her that she is Stereotypical Barbie.Also another thing against Robbie is she will be up for collecting a statue as Producer if Barbie wins BP (which I think it will). Voters love to spread the love, and if they support Barbie for BP, I think they’ll be inclined to vote for someone else for Best Actress.
While I’d love to be proved wrong, I don’t believe the academy will give one of the ‘big 6‘ Oscars to Barbie. Oppenheimer will likely get an acting award or two, Nolan’s got a shot at best director, but based on the last several years, it’s made too much money to be considered for best picture.
My view on Barbie is that it deserves courtesy nominations for Best Picture, Director for Gerwig, and Actress for Robbie, but I don’t expect it to win any of those.However, if it doesn’t walk away with wins in Production Design and Costume Design, there is no justice in the world.
Haven’t seen Barbie yet, but I really wasn’t blown away by any of the performances in Oppenheimer though Cillian Murphy does a great job of holding the movie together so I wouldn’t be mad if he got nominated or won. As for the rest, I just don’t see it and some of them were downright distracting.
They’ll submit Gosling in the Supporting Actor category 1,000,000%
Best supporting nom for Michael Cera as Alan or we riot
I think Billie Eilish’s song for Barbie is great. I´d prefer it over “I´m just Ken” (my sisters were weeping throughout the montage shown with the song).
I am a Billie Eilish agnostic, but her Barbie song is beautiful and I think it deserves the nod more than “I’m Just Ken.”
At least 50% of the Academy voters are male and you know “I’m Just Ken” is going to be stuck in their heads for a while. I’m one of those things and it’s certainly stuck in mine.
I’m gonna make my winner predictions now in the major categories:
Best Picture: Barbie. It’s this years EEAAOBest Director: I think Scorsese will actually win here, both because Nolan and Gerwig (who will both be nommed) will split the vote, and because voters will no doubt be thinking Scorsese may not have many films left, and treat it as a lifetime achievement award. Best Actress: Lily Gladstone will win for Killers of the Flower Moon. Robbie will get a nom, but her chances are hurt by the fact she was upstaged by Gosling. Plus, she’ll get another bite at the apple, since she’s a producer and stands to collect for BP.Best Actor: Cillian Murphy, with DiCaprio a strong contender.Supporting Actor: Gosling. Unless he says or does something stupid, or there are allegations made, it’s his to lose.Supporting Actress: Rachel McAdams. Are You There God, It’s Me Margaret is the sleeper of the year, and she gave a career best performance.Honestly, the biggest fight is gonna be in the Adapted Screenplay category. Not only do you have Barbie and Oppenheimer, but also Killers of the Flower Moon and Are You There God, It’s Me Margaret in contention too. It’s an amazing lineup. Honestly I’d be happy if any of them won, but I’ll give the edge to Barbie, because Gerwig deserves her damn Oscar!
What are the prestige pics slated to come out this fall? It seems like Downey isn’t just considered a lock for the Supporting Actor nomination, but probably a win. I’m curious if anyone can upend that.
And who would take Lead Actor away from Murphy?And do we see any other directors with prominent films this year, or will it actually be a Nolan-Gerwig battle for the prize? Barbie won’t win Best Picture, but do we think Oppenheimer is one of the legit contenders?I suppose Killers of the Flower Moon could be major competition across a number of fronts. Maestro is supposed to be in the mix but might be like Banshees from last year – lots of noms but no prize.
I don’t know about the remainder of the year, but I think Past Lives is going to be a serious contender for BP, and it seems to be slipping people’s minds here. I’d rank it just above Barbie myself, though I wouldn’t be disappointed to see that win instead. I think it’s a much better contender for adapted screenplay though.It’s hard to think of anyone much better than Murphy for Best Actor, but that’s less on his performance and more the fact that there’s just not a lot of competition. It would never happen, but I’d kind of love it if Charlie Day got it for Fool’s Paradise. It’s not necessarily a better performance, but it’s a much riskier one, and I think he executed it better than Murphy did his role.
I really want to see Past Lives and I’m sad I haven’t yet.
I think predicting winners, much less nominations, is a pretty pointless exercise, especially because of how political industry awards are. But I’d love to see Barbenheimer clean up the awards show.…Except writing. I didn’t think either film was amazingly well-written. As much as I loved Oppie, I loved the execution more than anything. Like most other people, I felt the drag in the last hour when the movie suddenly shifts focus to Oppie’s life after the Trinity Test. And Barbie was a ton of fun, but subtle as an ox.
I feel like if it was a linear narrative the movie would have flowed better and RDJ character wouldn’t be as out of place as he is in the beginning
I disagree. If the movie was told linearly, RDJ wouldn’t be introduced into the movie until that last third, after two hours of Oppenheimer’s origin and the Manhattan Project. People would complain that RDJ’s character was “crammed” into the movie, but that entire last third is the story that Nolan seems most interested in telling. And that last third relies heavily on what you learn about Oppenheimer in the first third.I think the problem is that Nolan cuts away from the RDJ storyline for too long, in the build-up to the Trinity test, so when the bomb goes off, that’s the climax for the audience. Bomb go boom. Let’s go home. The movie has to shift focus to a storyline that up until that point had felt more like a framing device than anything, and at some points has to remind the audience of characters and plot points that haven’t been seen in over an hour.It’s the same problem Scorsese dealt with on The Irishman. Everyone complains about the last hour, but the conflict and fallout De Niro and Murphy’s characters experience after the exciting parts are the point of the movies.
Blunt and Ferrera both have a shot at getting on the basis of a single scene, it’s happened before, hell, I think Dench won off of one scene.
Can’t really compare, Dench was a beloved old thespian who many felt had been snubbed the previous year. Beatrice Straight won an Oscar for a single scene, though, for Network.
RDJ has the best shot among the case of Barbenheimer for picking up an Oscar.Murphy, Gosling, Robbie will all score nominations, but only Murphy has a chance of winning. Sorry Gosling! (However, a Golden Globe in Musical/Comedy category is most likely a lock for him)Blunt will be nominated for reasons unknown, with little chances of winning.Damon might be nominated for reasons unknown, with little chances of winning (definitely not over RDJ).Ferrera might also be nominated with less than Blunt’s chances of winning.Pugh has less chances of getting nominated, unless 2023 wasn’t a good year for supporting actress roles.Both films will be nominated for Best Picture.Both Nolan and Gerwig securing both directing and writing nods seems a bit much. But that might still happen because of the split writing category and the perceived backlash if either misses out on directing nod.Barbie has a better chance in Production design and costuming.Oppenheimer had excellent sound design (We didn’t have any problems at least in my country) But rewarding a Nolan film for its sound sounds counterproductive somehow.Billie Eilish’s number (which I can’t even remember) in Barbie was an obvious awards bait. But if the Academy voters learnt anything picking “Dos Oruguitas” over “We don’t talk about Bruno”, they should reward “I’m just Ken”
“Dune: Part Two” is out November 3. Noms for Picture, Director, Actor (Chalamet) and may supporting—lots of tech wins as with “Dune.”
The Academy changed a lot of their rules based on how inclusive the films now have to be. Oppenheimer may not be eligible for anything.
I’d all but give Oppenheimer a lock for Best Picture this year. It is the Academy’s second favorite genre after all, BioPic of Troubled White Genuis. Behind only the obvious favorite, Exploration of Race Relations That Makes Everything About Individuals.Nolan probably wins Best Director, simply because it is his turn/he’s due despite him being objectively terrible at several aspects of directing (sound and female performances). Barbie will surely rack up lots of nominations with likely a few wins in the ‘pity’ categories and shut out in acting/directing/film/screenplay.
I think Gosling is a shoe in for supporting actor but that category will be the fiercest for years. Downey Jr will get nominated for Oppenheimer (he was great in that), De Niro likely for Flower Moon and potentially Jeremy Allan White for Iron Claw. It will be very tough.Cillian Murphy will likely win best actor. He was fantastic in that movie. Margot Robbie and America Ferrera could potentially receive nominations, but the former has a tough contest against Lily Gladstone for Flower Moon.