20 Best Picture contenders for the 2023 Oscars
Sure, the Academy Awards are still six months away, but the race is already starting to take shape
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(Clockwise from top left:) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Courtesy of Marvel Studios), RRR (DVV Entertainment), The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures screenshot), Avatar: The Way Of Water (screenshot), The Whale (Courtesy of A24) Graphic: The A.V. Club
The 95th Academy Awards are upon us! Just kidding. But now that film festivals at Venice, Telluride, and Toronto have wrapped up, we do find ourselves in the opening leg of the Oscar race. That means Hollywood’s annual back-patting and glad-handing season has arrived in earnest, so unlike the last time The A.V. Club predicted Oscar results, we’re now able to make some properly educated guesses. Since there can be up to 10 nominees for the best picture Oscar, we’ve rounded up 20 contenders, from artsy indie fare (The Whale) to buzzy titles from overseas (Decision To Leave) to star-studded mainstream titles (Avatar and Black Panther will be back soon, so buckle up).
66 Comments
It is much to ask about a bit of basic literacy? There is no twist in All quiet in the Western Front… The book on which all the movies are based was published in 1928 in it is written by a German and from a German perspective…
I’m looking forward to seeing this. Germany makes particularly good films about their own rather complicated history, especially the last century, but most never get released in an easily viewable format outside of western European television.
Did you read the book? I feel like it was one of those high school standards that we all had to read. I feel like Sophomore year if high schools English classes goal was to teach “War is bad”.
For some reason, they assigned this book to us in 8th grade, so yes, I did read it. I remember the rough beats of the story, but not too many details. I’ve seen the English language movie from the 30s too.I also remember being confused because the book often mentions that characters came from a place called “Prussia”, which in the pre-internet era, I couldn’t find on the maps of Europe we had in school. Even more confusing because I lived somewhat near the suburb of “King of Prussia” in Pennsylvania.
There’s a similar twist in Gone with the Wind, where the story is told from the Southern perspective.
Came to say the same. I know AVClub has kinda turned their operation into a content mill but this is next-level.
You know, the great war that England fought on their Western Front…with King Triton and his Atlantic army of merpeople!
This is just like the recent 2013 Gatsby movie where, in a clever and unexpected twist, they told the story from the perspective of Nick Carraway!
Beat me to it. Holy fuck this website has gone downhill.
Well alright, this is shaping up to be a fine fall for movies!
Calling it now: The Fablemans. Its both a love letter to movies and directed by Spielberg. Also, if Farrell is nominated I suspect it will be for After Yang.
I would have agreed with you on “The Fablemans” 10 years ago, but Spielberg seems to have lost his clout with ticket buyers and academy voters. And compared to the other contenders about fractured families, notably EEAAO, “The Fablemans” seems like a quaint relic from the 1990s. I’ll be surprised if EEAAO isn’t an award seasons juggernaut. Everybody loved it without having to be told to love it because it was an Oscar contender or directed by someone famous.
Disagree. I felt very much like my lukewarm appreciation of EEAAO was gonna get me blackballed by my film friends. I fully expect to have my posts about it in here earn me some flames.
No worries, I got your back. EEAAO is soooo overrated. Bring on the flames, bichez!!!
Calling it now: The Fablemans. Its both a love letter to movies and directed by Spielberg.
Both of those things are actually much less likely to win Oscars than people claim is the case.
Rooting HARD for Brendan Fraser, both for him and for the stammering, “Well, not ALL fat suits are bad” followed by the “Actually, fuck Brendan for wearing a fat suit” backlash.I love it when snakes eat their tails.
I’m going to go ahead and predict that the film where two blokes improve their fighting techniques by shoving paperweights up their arses is not going to get nominated for Best Picture.
They don’t give you one of these unless you made a brilliant movie.
You are probably right yet “Everything Everywhere All at Once” was still the best, most moving film I’ve seen all year.
It was one of the best movie I’ve seen in years, honestly, and I see a lot. It successfully accomplishes what it sets out to do in a way that appears effortless but given the subject and tone is incredibly difficult to achieve. Really impressive stuff.
Looking at the odds in Vegas, EEAAO is currently at +600. The only movies with better odds are The Fablemans (+150) and Babylon (+500).I’m willing to bet the film at least gets a Best Adapted Screenplay nomination. Michelle Yeoh has a good shot at Best Actress. And I will dance the happiest happy dance should Ke Huy Quan gets a Best Supporting Actor nomination.
One of my gripes about the movie is that the jumps are supposed to be initiated by doing something unexpected. But by the time we’ve seen a handful of the “unexpected” actions they’re actually pretty predictable. I’m sorry to anyone amused by the buttplug award karate power up but I saw that coming and rolled my eyes when it happened.Also, if the idea is that each jump is a new set of skills, why does Yeoh retain her martial arts ability outside of her martial arts alter?
It’s unexpected for the character, not necessarily for the audience even more so as the film went on and we got used to the mechanics of the system.Sometimes it was Yeoh as a martial artist but there was also her using her hibachi chef and sign twirling skills to fight as well.Also, at some point, she like Jobu developed the skill to tap any of her alternate selves at any time, hence the Everything Everywhere All at Once of the title.
Sure. It’s like Natalie Portman in Garden State. So “random”!A hibachi chef or sign twirler aren’t fighters. Her character is not a martial artist, it makes no sense that Yeoh Prime would incorporate those skills into fighting. And she’s supposed to lose those skills as soon as she flips. It made no sense that she and Jobu had that ability, the movie never establishes what makes them special in that way. It just IS that way because Daniels needed it to be that way for the emotional resonance. It’s a contrivance. I was ultimately fine with that, but it’s still contrived.Sorry. I just didn’t get on board the lovefest for the film. It’s great in many ways but has more flaws than anyone seems willing to say.
We’re presenting these contenders chronologically…Do you mean alphabetically?
Jesus, editing is dead at AV Club.
Well… they ARE chronological, in a way.
If you said them all out loud, you’d say “All Quiet on the Western Front” about 30 seconds before you said “Women Talking”
Yeah… I got nothing. I feel like I could have 10 percent less posts and 10 percent better editing and be OK with this site.
Chronologically as in the order in which the letters were invented! Duh!
Yes, people were enamored with Avatar for a while in 2009, but it’s since become a joke, right along with 3D televisions. Zero chance that the new one will get a Best Picture nom.
Always always always bet against James Cameron…Oh and Avatar is good— especially its “we should all be out there blowing up pipelines” politics.
Good politics don’t necessarily make good movies. In this case, they definitely didn’t.
I think you are right but I heard rumors from a buddy of mine who works for a TV manufacture that they basically holding their breath waiting to see how Avatar 2 does. If it’s crazy successful then by the holidays 2023 we are gonna see the home 3D market come back huge. Mostly because 3D was what moved TVs last time, no other gimmick or tech improvement has. Remember how curved TVs were a thing no one wanted for a few years?
I’m 99% certain Avatar 2 will be just fine. Not great. Not even particularly good. Just a shiny piece of fine entertainment and nothing more. I believe this because that’s exactly what the first one was. I think the backlash against the first one is because people are overcorrecting just how much they went nuts for it when it first came out. (I call this The Phantom Menace Effect.)The other 1% of me remembers that James Cameron has directed 2 of the greatest sequels of all time, so who knows, maybe that mass of pure ego given human form could actually pull it off.
And that’s what you can usually expect from James Cameron. He either makes a really good movie like Aliens, Terminator 2, Titanic or he makes bad movies with good directions, well-paced and spectacular action that makes them enjoyable regardless.
“I think the backlash against the first one is because people are overcorrecting just how much they went nuts for it when it first came out.”Nah, I said it was shitty even back then.
My bad. I forgot 2009 was the year you spoke for everybody.
Sorry, I didn’t realize I wasn’t included in “people” when you used that word.
Do we really think a superhero sequel that had to be completely rewritten after the Star passed away is really gonna win an Oscar for anything other than costumes or special effects? Especially given Marvels very uneven output since EndgameI hope I’m proven wrong but I suspect, at best, Black Panther is a watchable but inferior sequel like Doctor Strange or Thor were this year. At worst it’s another Eternals where it gets so caught up in smelly it’s own farts that it forgets to make a watchable movie
Yeah I legitimately hope Black Panther is good, like almost as good as the original. There’s still a lot of talent there. But the first one got a big sentimental bump because it was a box office juggernaut and also the First Black Superhero Movie (Blade has been memory-holed). Round Two won’t benefit from that.
AgreedI can’t speculate on how good the new Blade will be but the original trilogy, or at least the first two, deserves more recognition.
I’m reminded of when Entertainment Weekly put the first Hobbit movie on the Oscar watch list. This, of course, was before they saw it.Then again, I hear this Ryan Coogler fella is quite talented.
Exactly my thought. The Hobbit was such a huge disappointment. But then again Coogler does great work. So who knows.
Agreed, I think it will be really good but a step down.
As a fan: the Strange and Thor films this year (and also No Way Home, I’d say) were – in the moment and even more in retrospect – huge messes.
I found No Way Home at least a guilty pleasure and fun whereas Strange and Thor, this year, were not.
Look, don’t blame AV Club going to hell, I think at this point its legally mandated that you nominate a Marvel movie if you’re in the business of making listicles
It depends on the scale in which it is weighed. I’ve no doubt Wakanda Forever will be the better of the more recent Marvel movie outings as the bar has been set so low but should that be enough for an Oscar nomination?The first Black Panther received way more accolades than it rightly deserved. It’s a decent action superhero movie with some undeniably great costumes and set design but arguably the worst CGI I’ve ever seen in the last 20 years and the story gets a little muddled toward the middle with all the mystical junk tied to the vibranium ore, making it vague and confusing, that detracts from the main story, imo.A part of me is glad a wider spectrum of movies are being considered for Oscar nominations, preferably for solid performance and writing over cultural breakthroughs, compared to the traditional stuffy dramas and Oscar bait films of the past but at the same time, I can also see that by allowing more action films and comedy into the more prestigious categories, it lowers the bar all around.
for all I know, everyone is playing a prank on me and The Whale is not an actual movie but only that one still frame
It’s kinda odd to make a list of “Best Picture” contenders where a majority of the films on the list aren’t even released yet… What makes them “the best” without any kind of a real conclusive experience yet?Of the 20 films on this list, only 5 have been released so far:
• Everything Everywhere All At Once
• Nope
• RRR
• Top Gun: Maverick
• The Woman King
I was thinking along the same lines— a lot of the descriptions here (and in the articles about the festivals) make hardly, if any, mention whether the movie in question is actually, you know, good.The phrase “inherent Oscar cred” in the Avatar description is pretty telling.
Top gun is The Best Picture . The Woman king re writes history to make a bunch of vicious evil slave traders the good guys ,utter BS ,.You want a fantasy use different names .
Fat suit Brendan Fraser should be the new 007.
I laughed out loud when I saw Avatar in the banner image.
If any follow-up that can make an even bigger Oscar splash than Avatar: The Way Of Water, it’s Wakanda Forever—and we mean a literal splash, as the underwater civilization Talocan will feature prominently in the film.Is Atlantis trademarked or did they just want to avoid audiences confusing Namor with Aquaman? Honestly, I don’t mind. I just wonder what the Aztec equivalent to “Imperius Rex!” would be…
Top Gun, RRR, Woman King, Black Panther 2, and Avatar 2 stand no chance. They may very well be entertaining (and the ones that are out are!) but they aren’t best picture quality. Out of the genre/blockbuster flicks I could see MAYBE The Batman getting a best picture nom, but highly doubtful.Elvis seems like an omission here. Same with the new David O Russel movie Amsterdam. I personally very much liked Norseman but that’ll be forgotten like Green Knight was last year. Incredible Weight of Massive Talent could sneak in there, but doubtful.
I definitely see Top Gun getting a nomination, though not a win. I think that will probably be this year’s “Look we nominated a popular one too” pick. I agree those others have basically no shot even at a nom. In truth, there haven’t been a whole lot of great movies so far this year. Of course, looking at the list, at least five movies that are almost certain to get nominated haven’t seen a wide release yet, so that may change.
I wonder if Avatar just sorta misses the mark. I have not idea why it took so long for the sequels to come out. It’s clear that early 2010s audiences were craving sequels and world building and five moves all tied together could have really caught on. The MCU had started a year before, in theory, but Avatar was bigger than any of those movies until Endgame. Instead they waited 13 years when a movie going public is just a bit burned out by cinematic universe. It will be interesting to see if Dune 2 eats Avatar 2s lunch next year. Dune is the grand daddy of epic sprawling sci-fi in a detailed fleshed out world. Its DNA shows up in both Star Wars, Star Trek and a thousand other properties, even Avatar. Of course I’ve always been a huge fan of Dune so I’m rooting for it to become this big sprawling movie universe even if whenever they adapt the 4th book it turns into “My Dinner with Andre” starring a Worm man and a clone of one of his dads best friends/father figure
“The Northman”? Anyone? No?
My prediction is The Fableman’s will be this year’s The
Irishman. It’ll get a bunch of nominations and probably win Best Picture and
Best Director.Cate Blanchett will win best actress.Brendon Fraser will win best actor.I will be shocked if Black Panther is nominated for Best Picture
a second time, simply because there’s too many Academy members who love to bash
Marvel.
I’m just going to say it here: EEAAO is maybe one of the most overrated films in a long time.
It was – just – a good movie.
EEAAO was a fun, interesting bit of weird cinema with unexpected heart. But it was also woefully overhyped. I genuinely don’t get the hyperbolic praise. Good? Yes! Very much. Best Picture? No. Goodness no.
Hell, naw, I was no Train to Busan, Parasite or RRR, by no means, JLC helped it along for the first 40 minutes, overhyped indeed.
six months way —> six months awayWe’re presenting these contenders chronologically —> We’re presenting these contenders alphabeticallyhigh water mark —> high watermarkIf any follow-up that can make an even bigger Oscar splash —> If any follow-up can make an even bigger Oscar splashKeke Palmer, the future of Hollywood —> no
High-water markhttps://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/high-water%20mark
If Avatar wins Best Picture we’re fighting.
RRR made Everything, Everywhere…look like Tailor Tinker Soldier Spy. Incredible epic film!!