Our 2024 Oscars predictions for every category

Here we are at the end of another awards season, with frontrunners in some categories and others that are too close to call. As we get ready for the 96th Academy Awards on Sunday, we think it’s safe to say it’s going to be a big night for Christopher Nolan and Oppenheimer. But with such a strong field of contenders, it’s tougher than usual to predict the categories where Oppenheimer isn’t nominated. And there are even some categories we’re actually expecting it to lose. Gasp.

This year we decided to go all-out and pick a winner for every single category. So if you’re filling out your Oscar pool ballot and have no idea what to put down for, say, Best Documentary Short, don’t worry—we’ve got you covered. Or at least, we’ll try our best. These predictions are based on what we know about the nominees in each category. But as much as we try to get inside the heads of the voting Academy members, we can never be totally sure how it will turn out.

Read on for all the categories in alphabetical order, with the exception of Best Picture, of course. There may not be much suspense this year, but we’re still keeping up our tradition of saving that one for last.

Actor in a Leading Role

The nominees:Bradley Cooper, MaestroColman Domingo, RustinPaul Giamatti, The HoldoversCillian Murphy, OppenheimerJeffrey Wright, American FictionPredicted winner: Cillian Murphy, OppenheimerFor a while, it looked like Cillian Murphy and Paul Giamatti were running neck and neck, for two very different performances in two very different films. Murphy’s subdued, inward-looking portrayal of the title character in Oppenheimer stands in stark contrast to Giamatti’s brusque history professor in The Holdovers. The other actors in this category all deserve to be here, but this was largely a two-man race until recently. Once Murphy took the BAFTA and the SAG Award it started to look like he might have this category sewn up.