An Album of The Year win for either Taylor Swift or SZA would be historic

When it comes to the Grammys, the Album of the Year category is The Big One. Ostensibly, the nominees in this category are the cream of the crop, not just the best but perhaps also the most representative of the year in music. Many of the past winners have been legendary projects (Michael Jackson’s Thriller, Fleetwood Mac’s Rumors, Paul Simon’s Graceland) while many have been controversial (Beck over Beyoncé in 2015, Adele over Beyoncé in 2017, Harry Styles over Adele and Beyoncé in 2023). In any case, winning the award is an opportunity to make history—and doubly so for some of the 2024 nominees.

Most notable is Taylor Swift, whose album Midnights is among those recognized in the category. Swift tends to pick up records and awards like a magnet, but amongst Album of the Year winners, she’s in particularly rarified air. Right now, she’s tied with Frank Sinatra, Stevie Wonder, and Paul Simon for most Album of the Year wins with three (Fearless, 1989, and Folklore). If she takes home the trophy this year, she’ll become the artist with the most Album of the Year awards in Grammy history. Though Midnights is far from her best work, it is in many ways the album of 2023. With massive sales combined with a record-smashing tour, Midnights propelled Swift—already an industry titan—to the biggest year of her career. With Gold Derby calling five-to-one odds for a win, the album is poised to solidify Swift’s spot in music history. (Bonus record: if Midnights producer Jack Antonoff takes the prize for Producer of the Year, Non Classical, his third win will tie him with Babyface for most in the category.)

If Midnights doesn’t manage to triumph, another frontrunner could also make history. SZA is a strong contender for the prize with her critically acclaimed album SOS. If she won Album of the Year, she would be the first Black woman to do so in 25 years. She would also be the fourth Black woman to win the prize ever, keeping company with Natalie Cole, Whitney Houston, and Lauryn Hill. Though it may not have saturated pop culture quite as Midnights did in 2023, SOS was a huge success, spending 10 weeks at the top of the Billboard 200 albums chart, the longest-running No. 1 album released by a woman in nearly seven years, per The Hollywood Reporter.

Of course, nobody’s win is guaranteed, and since the category expanded to 10 nominees in 2022, there’s a lot of competition. Janelle Monae is unlikely to steal the prize for The Age Of Pleasure, but she, too, would be among the only Black female artists to win if she took the trophy. Per USA Today, Jon Baptiste has the chance to become one of just three artists (alongside Adele and Stevie Wonder) to win the award for two consecutive studio albums (he won in 2022 for We Are and is nominated again for World Music Radio). Less historic, but personally significant, would be first-time wins for boygenius, Olivia Rodrigo, Miley Cyrus, and Lana Del Rey. A split vote for the frontrunner could leave the playing field wide open. We’ll see how things shake out when the Grammys air on Sunday.