The writers strike is (tentatively) over. When will Hollywood schedules look normal again?

On May 2, screenwriters from all corners of the industry swapped pens for picket signs, causing regular production schedules across both film and television to grind to a near halt. The actors joined them on the line 73 days later, launching a historic double strike that shut down Hollywood altogether.

Now, after five long and painful months, the writers strike looks like it’s finally coming to an end. Per an email received by guild members Sunday night, leadership has reached a tentative deal with AMPTP to end the work stoppage. From here, various WGA leadership boards will vote Tuesday on whether or not to approve the contract, before passing it along to the guild’s approximately 11,000 members for final ratification (per The New York Times). This will likely happen sometime in the next two weeks.

This is major news, but what does it actually mean for writers—who have suspended all picketing effective today—and actors, who are still on strike?

What did writers gain from the strike?

As of this writing, neither side has released an official statement concerning the contents of the tentative agreement. In their email, WGA called the deal “exceptional,” stating that it contained “meaningful gains and protections for writers in every sector of the membership,” while the AMPTP has yet to release anything. This could be a key to which side came out on top, or—as Puck’s Matthew Belloni and Jonathan Handel posit—it could also be a spin by WGA leadership to make any necessary concessions sound sweeter to its members. We won’t know anything for sure until the guild shares the fine print.

Still, both Puck and NYT are reporting that the WGA was able to make good on most of its requests, from increased residuals to broad-spectrum A.I. protections. Per Puck, the writers were reportedly able to change how residuals work to reflect how popular a show or movie actually is—bonuses will now more accurately reflect how much a particular title is watched. Writers also apparently locked in a minimum number of staffers for each writing room based on the number of episodes in a series, but it’s not clear exactly what that minimum is.

As for A.I., studio heads apparently dug their feet in concerning a few paragraphs that, according to NYT, “addressed a guild concern about A.I. and old scripts that studios own.” This was the last point both sides argued over.

What does this mean for SAG-AFTRA?

SAG-AFTRA and its thousands of members are still on strike. “SAG-AFTRA congratulates the WGA on reaching a tentative agreement with the AMPTP after 146 days of incredible strength, resiliency, and solidarity on the picket lines. While we look forward to reviewing the WGA and AMPTP’s tentative agreement, we remain committed to achieving the necessary terms for our members,” the guild said in a statement posted to their website Sunday night.

While the actors guild is striking separately and the WGA’s contract does not directly affect their demands or any potential gains, it does signal a willingness on behalf of the studios to finally sit down and hash things out. Both sides want similar things—e.g. increased residuals and A.I. protections—so the WGA deal could end up serving as something of a guide in future discussions. No talks between SAG-AFTRA and the AMPTP are scheduled as of this writing.

When will talk shows start back up?

This agreement is great news for talk shows and other select reality programs that have been stalled. After courting intense ire from the guild for announcing (and then un-announcing) their early returns just last week, talk shows like The Drew Barrymore Show and Real Time With Bill Maher will be able to move forward with production as soon as the deal is officially ratified.

Per a Variety insider, we could see a return of late-night programming as early as the first week of October, depending on the WGA’s timeline. “I think everybody’s leaning forward, like they’re ready to go… I think that they are going to be very motivated to get their crews working again,” the source said. Separately, Deadline reported on Monday afternoon that Saturday Night Live could be back on either October 7 or 14, depending on how the WGA voting goes. While the SNL cast could go back to work—they’re covered under SAG-AFTRA’s Network Code, similarly to Dancing With The Stars’ stars—they could potentially have to lean into non-actor hosts.

While major hosts like Jimmy Kimmel, Jimmy Fallon, and Seth Meyers are only covered by the WGA and could therefore return to production immediately, Variety predicts that these productions will coordinate and all re-enter the scene at the same time, in the “spirit of cooperation” and because no one’s “interested in rushing to put a crappy first show together.” (Staff who may have left the production’s home city need to be recalled, guests need to be booked, etc.)

What does this mean for other scripted television?

It’s a little harder to predict the calendar for scripted comedies and dramas, all of which are still on indefinite hiatus due to the ongoing actors strike. Per a report from Deadline, if the actors strike also wraps up soon, network execs predict it will take about eight to ten weeks for drama series to be back in production and six to eight weeks for comedies. For network procedurals (i.e. The Rookie, NCIS) that require few special effects, new episodes could appear as early as mid-March.

Still, that schedule would require expedited shoots and for cast and crew to take less time off than usual. Per Law & Order showrunner Warren Leight, we aren’t likely to see too many—if any—short, six to eight-episode season orders, as these aren’t as profitable for networks anyway, not to mention any increased payouts as a result of the WGA deal. Instead, we may still get some 13-episode network seasons if SAG-AFTRA is able to close a deal by the end of October, while other shows will likely push back to fall 2024 regardless.

Separately and further in the future, Puck predicts a massive logjam of productions scrambling to get back to work all at once as soon as a SAG-AFTRA deal is reached. This will likely come with an explosion of casting and new project announcements that have been held back, so that’s something to look forward to as well. As painful as all of this has been, it’s also an exciting time for the future of the industry (one that, according to Puck, may or may not contain a reboot of The Office…).